← Grand Library League S3 Finals
Water FractalTier 2
at Grand Library League S3 Finals
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 12.2% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 48.6% | -1.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.1% | -1.4 |
| Water Genbu | 8.9% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +1.0 |
| Wind Allies | 7.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.2% | -0.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.6% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 51.3% | +0.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 4.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.4% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.1% | -1.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.4% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 47.0% | -1.9 |
| Wind Neos | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.0% | -3.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.2% | +0.9 |
| Wind Byakko | 2.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.8% | +0.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.7 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -1.5 |
| Water Polkhawk | 1.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Overlord | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Fire Resonance Bauble, Jianyu, Fate's Premonition, Lost in Thought. Losers more often ran: Staggering Strike, Orb of Hubris, Extricating Touch.
Banned
Show all 45 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 33 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Torpid Fractal | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hydroguard Retainer | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fan of Seven Debts | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Glitter | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Seal | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ardent Cloudstriker | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Baby Green Slime | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Mana | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Disenchant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |